The Record Isn’t the Problem, The Direction Is…
At 12–22, the LA Clippers aren’t just losing games, they’re losing relevance. As of January 5, 2026, they sit 12th in the Western Conference, outside the play-in in a conference that does not forgive mediocrity. Oklahoma City is 30–5. San Antonio is 25–10. Denver, even while injured, remains ahead.
This isn’t a slow start. This is who they are.
Advanced metrics confirm it. The Clippers own a -2.3 net rating (19th), with an offensive rating of 116.3 (11th) that looks respectable until you realize it’s paired with a 118.5 defensive rating (25th). They are winning possessions and losing games, the worst place to live in the NBA.
Even worse? Their expected record (15–19) already suggests regression. Teams with net ratings below -2.0 at this stage of the season historically have under a 20% chance to recover into playoff form.
The Clippers aren’t unlucky. They’re mathematically stuck.
Derrick Jones Jr.’s Injury Was the Final Straw
When Derrick Jones Jr. went down with a Grade 2 right MCL sprain, it wasn’t just another injury. It was the last thread holding together a broken defense.
Jones will miss 4–6+ weeks, meaning nearly two full months lost this season. Before the injury, he averaged 10.4 points, 0.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks, providing exactly what this roster desperately lacks: athleticism, weak-side rim protection, and transition defense.
Without him, the Clippers lose their best point-of-attack defender outside of Kawhi Leonard, and their already shaky defensive identity completely collapses.
This is now a team ranked:
- 29th in pace (96.1)
- 30th in rebounds (40.4 per game)
- Bottom-tier in assists (23.6 APG)
- Reliant on isolation scoring to survive possessions
You can’t defend. You can’t rebound. You can’t run. That’s not a contender, that’s a warning sign.
The Stars Are Still Good, And That’s the Problem
Here’s the cruel irony: Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are still excellent.
Leonard is averaging 28.3 PPG on 49.7% shooting, with near-elite efficiency (~63% TS) when healthy. Harden is putting up 25.7 points and 8.0 assists, still capable of controlling games in bursts. Ivica Zubac is quietly posting 15.2 points and 11.0 rebounds on 60.4% FG.
And yet, it doesn’t matter.
Why? Because the Clippers are old, expensive, and fragile. The average age of the rotation is around 30, with multiple key contributors 35+. Leonard has already missed 10 games. Harden carries massive usage. Zubac is sidelined with a Grade 2 ankle sprain. Bradley Beal has played six games all season.
This is not a core you double down on. This is a core you extract value from before the injuries worsen.
Why Standing Pat Is the Worst Option
Here’s the nightmare scenario: the Clippers do nothing.
They finish with 30–34 wins, land the 8th–10th worst record, miss the playoffs, and miss elite lottery odds. Their massive contracts remain on the books. Their stars age another year. Their flexibility disappears.
Historically, teams with negative net ratings, aging stars, and no young All-Star pipeline almost never “retool” successfully. They either rebuild late, or rebuild badly.
Trading now maximizes leverage:
- Kawhi Leonard’s 28 PPG still screams value
- Harden’s playmaking still moves contenders
- Zubac’s efficiency makes him one of the league’s best-value centers
Waiting only guarantees diminished returns.
The Reset: Trading the Past to Buy a Future
If the Clippers commit to reality, the path forward is brutally clear: cash out now while the numbers still hold value. Kawhi Leonard is still giving you 28 a night. James Harden is still an elite playmaker. Ivica Zubac is in his prime, efficient, and productive. That combination — aging stars with strong box-score profiles — is exactly how franchises extract maximum return before decline erases leverage.
Holding this core risks the worst outcome in basketball: a middling lottery pick with no cap flexibility and no young centerpiece. Moving them now flips short-term pain into long-term control — younger players, defensive upside, and draft capital aligned with a 2026–2028 window. Below is the clearest version of that reset.
Clippers Trade Blueprint (Mid-Season 2025–26)
| Player | 2025–26 Stats | Return | Grade | Why It Makes Sense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | 28.3 PPG, 49.7% FG | Jalen Williams + 2026 1st (T5 protected.) + 2027 2nd | A- | Elite scoring + defence still pops; OKC gambles on a title run |
| James Harden | 25.7 PPG, 8.0 APG | Tyler Herro + 2026 1st (lotto protected.) | B+ | Playmaking raises ceiling for contenders; Clips get youth + shooting |
| Ivica Zubac | 15.2 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 60.4% FG | Dereck Lively II + 2027 1st | A | Prime-age center flipped for a 21-year-old rim anchor |
| John Collins | 12.6 PPG, 53.0% FG | Jalen Smith + 2026 2nd | C+ | Contract limits value; still converts into younger stretch depth |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 10.4 PPG, 55.6% FG | Lonnie Walker IV + 2027 2nd | C | Injury dents return, but athletic wing still has market |
| Bradley Beal | 8.2 PPG (6 GP) | Grayson Allen + 2026 2nd | D+ | Availability crushes value; anything back is a win |
| Bogdan Bogdanović | 8.0 PPG, 37.6% FG | Kevin Huerter + 2027 2nd | C- | Shooting reputation salvages modest return |
| Kris Dunn | 8.1 PPG, 1.5 SPG | Davion Mitchell + 2026 2nd | B- | Defense translates; younger POA guard fits rebuild |
| Brook Lopez | 6.9 PPG | Salary + 2027 2nd | D | Age limits upside; expiring clears minutes |
| Nicolas Batum | 5.0 PPG | Zeke Nnaji | D- | Veteran presence exchanged for a 24-year-old big |
Net Result:
• 3 first-round picks
• 6 second-round picks
• Core age drops from ~30 to ~23
• ~$100M in future cap flexibility
It’s not pretty, but it’s finally purposeful. This is how a franchise stops drifting and starts rebuilding with intent.
The Only Path Forward: Burn It Down Intelligently
The Clippers don’t need a soft reset. They need a full teardown with intent.
A strategic tank does three things:
- Converts aging production into young players and draft capital
- Clears $100M+ in long-term salary
- Aligns the franchise with the 2026 draft, projected to be star-heavy
The math supports it. Teams that bottom out decisively, rather than hover, are far more likely to land franchise cornerstones. And the Clippers do have young pieces worth developing: Cam Christie (20), Kobe Brown (25), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (22).
The window didn’t just close. It shattered.
The only question left is whether the Clippers accept reality now, or let it rot further.
